Upcoming Housing Crash in Calgary?

I hosted a Real Estate Q&A at CIBC Southcentre in September and the most common question I was asked was:

"What is happening to property values?" and "Are values going to crash?"

If I am getting asked this multiple times in a few hour span, I am sure you or someone you know has thought about it as well. Here are my thoughts on that:

The honest answer is, I don't know. But I think it's unlikely due to the following:

1. The Calgary market isn't artificially inflated. From 2015 to 2020 the housing market in Calgary was soft with lower buyer demand and increased supply. This put the city firmly in a buyers market, which put downward pressure on pricing. During that time Benchmark prices had year over year declines except for one small period in 2017.  Because of this extended period of little to no growth, the price gains we have witnessed so far through 2021 and 2022 reflect the market correcting itself, rather than being artificially inflated. 

2. The economic environment in Alberta right now. Right now, Alberta is better positioned to weather a slow down or small recession due to strength in the energy sector and recent increases in net interprovincial migration. Despite current inflation numbers and rising interest rates, Alberta's economy is expected to continue to grow over the next few quarters, just more slowly than the current rate. 

Overall, the market has shifted from the intense sellers market in the spring to something more balanced. We will likely see some small month over month price declines from here through to Q1 2023, which is normal; but nothing on a larger scale that would be considered a crash.